Blackjack Betting System
When it comes to casino games, players will stop at nothing to find a method that beats the casinos. This (usually) means finding a simple, easy-to-learn shortcut.
Finding a winning Blackjack strategy can difficult, but this article lays out the best, most basic tips a player needs to know to start beating the house. And, for players who want to exceed. Learn how to use the best blackjack betting systems to increase your chances of winning, including the Martingale system, Paroli strategy and more. When it comes to casino games, players will stop at nothing to find a method that beats the casinos. This (usually) means finding a simple, easy-to-learn shortcut. Like betting systems. Blackjack (Black Jack) System for Online Betting at Online Casinos.
Like betting systems. Betting systems are guidelines that tell you when and how much to bet, depending on whether you’ve won or lost your last hand.
Now, I don’t want to waste your time. So before moving on into explaining what types of betting systems there are, you should know that they’re a waste of time. I cover this in more detail below, but in short, betting systems do not reduce or eliminate the house edge. If you want to do that, then you need to learn basic blackjack strategy or card counting systems.
With that out of the way, lets move on.
There are two types of betting systems. The umbrellas that all betting systems sit under. One system is known as (positive) progression systems, and the second is known as (negative) regression systems. They’re easy to understand.
A (positive) progression betting system will tell you to raise your bets following each win, or a string of wins. The idea is that you’re funding your larger bets with money that you’ve won, not your bankroll. So you’re taking a risk (and possibly winning large sums of money) at no cost to you.
A (negative) regression betting system suggests that you raise your bets following a loss, or string of losses. The idea is to quickly make a comeback, preferably to 0 or slightly ahead. The danger with regression systems is that you can go broke quickly if you hit a streak of bad luck.
Now there are tens, maybe hundreds of betting systems that fit under one of these two categories. Instead of listing them all here, I just want to highlight the more well-known systems that theoretically work for blackjack players.
Martingale – The Martingale is a regressive betting system. What you do is double your bet after each loss. For example, if you made a $5 bet and lose, your next bet would be $10. Lose that one and your next bet would be $20. The idea is that your first win will cover all of your losses, plus put you one (original) unit ahead.
Parlay – The Parlay betting system is (nearly) the opposite of the Martingale. What you do here is setup a spread, say, from $10 to $100. Starting at $10, every time that you win, you will double your bet. Once you lose, you reset back to $0. Once you hit the $100 mark you’ll take your winnings and reset back to $10. The idea here is to take advantage of hot streaks, while minimizing your losses and the possibility of losing the money earned during said hot streak.
D’alembert Method – This is for multiple unit bets. If you win you decrease your bet by a unit, and if you lose you increase your bet by a unit.
Do Blackjack Betting Systems Work?
In the long run? No, betting systems do not work, for blackjack or any other casino game.
The reason why betting systems don’t work is because they don’t affect the house edge. In other words, the game is the same. How much you bet has no affect on what cards are in the deck, whether or not the dealer stands on a soft 17, how many decks are in play and so on. Variables that actually impact the house edge, and ultimately, how much you stand to win or lose in the long run.
Betting systems can be misleading though, because they can work in the short run. Not because they change the odds or house edge — that never happens — but because if a player decides to use a betting system and then runs into a stroke of luck, his “system” will help him to capitalize on that.
But it’s all smoke and mirrors. An illusion. The betting system isn’t helping him to win. He has the same odds no matter how much he bets.
If you wanted to improve your odds at blackjack, you’re much better off taking the time to learn basic strategy. Time consuming? Sure. Boring? Maybe. But that is your best bet if you want to reduce the house edge. In fact, if you play perfect basic strategy than you’ll reduce the odds to almost nothing, which means that in the short run (what most people care about), you can possibly see some swings (wins) in your favor.
Card counting would be the next step. That’s much harder to learn, but you’ll at least put the edge in your favor. You can beat the casino if you learn how to count cards.
However, for a lot of people basic strategy or card counting isn’t “fun” or “exciting.” It’s “boring” and it’s “work.” So what you got to do is decide what you want — do you want to win, even though it may not be seat of your pants exciting, or would you rather take big risks, play blackjack using betting systems and, ultimately, just gamble?
Either way is fine. It’s your money. In fact, I encourage you to use a betting system if that’s what’s going to make the games fun for you. Then once the games become boring, then you can quit for the day, trip or whatever. Just know that blackjack betting systems don’t work, and the only way to bet and be profitable at blackjack is to use mathematically sound and proven blackjack strategies.
Have you ever thought that you could get an advantage over the house just by altering your bet sizes or what you bet on at the right times? Many betting strategies exist that claim to be able to do just that. They claim that by changing your bets based on recent results, you can gain an edge over the house in a game (like blackjack) that normally has a house edge for the casino.
Are these systems for real? Well, that depends. It might be best to divide betting strategies into two categories, just to separate the effective methods from those that are ineffective (and sometimes sold as scams). Any betting strategy that claims to be able to structure bets that all have a house edge and somehow make you a winner is bound to disappoint you, because it simply isn’t possible to take multiple bets with negative expectations and come out with an overall positive expectation. We’ll call these betting systems. On the other hand, betting strategies that offer you ways to maximize your advantage or limit your risk of going broke when you already have the edge can be an important part of a professional blackjack player’s overall strategy.
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Betting Systems
Over the years, many people have tried to come up with betting systems that could beat various casino games. They appeal to a lot of players, especially those who don’t understand the math behind gambling. Often, they make some sort of intuitive sense, which leads people to come up with reasons to believe that their system must work. However, as we said earlier, no betting system can turn a series of bets with a house edge into a system that has an edge for the player.
Martingale System
Free Blackjack Betting Systems
Let’s take a look at one common betting system and see how it works – and why it doesn’t work.
The Martingale System is probably the best known casino gambling system in the world, and also the most popular. It is incredibly simple to use, and seems to offer a “can’t lose” way of playing games that offer bets that are around 50/50 propositions.
In the Martingale System, the player begins by making a small bet – usually the table minimum. If the player wins, they make that same small bet again. If they lose, they instead double their bet. If the player loses again, they double their bet again. The player continues doubling their bet until they win, at which point they revert to their original small bet size.
This means that in each iteration of the Martingale, the player will win the minimum bet size. For instance, a player might win their original $5 bet, thus profiting $5. Or they might have the following sequence:
Lose $5
Lose $10
Lose $20
Win $40
Meaning they would lose $35 but then win $40, thus coming out $5 ahead yet again.
So, why doesn’t this work? Eventually, you will hit a string of losses that will be catastrophic, wiping out your bankroll and any small profits you’ve made so far. Many players believe a long string of losses like that is unlikely, and they’re right; however, it will happen often enough that the casino retains the house edge they had at the beginning of the game. Table limits make this occur even faster, meaning you’ll quickly hit a point where you simply can’t double your bet anymore.
For instance, take a table with a minimum bet of $5 and a maximum bet of $500. The player can double six times:
$5
$10
$20
$40
$80
$160
$320
After that, the player cannot double to $640. For the moment, let’s do an example with single-zero roulette, since the math is easier. If the player makes a bet on one of the even money bets – say, betting on black – they have 18 ways to win, and 19 ways to lose. This means the player will lose 51.3% of the time. This also means that at any given time, there’s about a 0.94% chance that they’ll run into a 7-spin losing streak, putting them in the position of not being able to double. That’s only one time in 106 (we’re rounding a bit, but that’s roughly accurate), but that’s still not good enough to make the Martingale work! The player will make $525 in the 105 times they win, but they’ll lose $635 the one time they hit a 7-spin losing streak.
The math for blackjack is a bit more complicated, since not all bets pay even money, you’ll sometimes have to spend extra money to double down or split, and the player wins fan less than half of the hands (especially when taking pushes into account). However, the principle remains the same – the player cannot overcome a series of bets that have a house edge simply by creatively structuring their bets.
Betting Strategies and the Kelly Criterion
On the other hand, can betting strategies help you when you already have an advantage? The answer is emphatically yes! In fact, betting strategy is critical for anyone who wants to be a profitable blackjack player. For instance, card counting relies heavily on betting strategy, as the player must bet more when he has the advantage, and less (or not at all) when things swing in the dealer’s favor.
But betting strategy can be much more complex than that. While it’s obvious that players should bet more when they have an edge, it’s harder to figure out how much they should bet on a typical hand. Figuring that out requires the player to take into account the size of their bankroll, as well as the size of their edge over the house.
One method of figuring out the optimal bet size is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is an attempt to maximize the rate at which a player can make money when they have an edge without having a significant risk of ruin. The formula is basically as follows:
f = (bp-q)/b
f = the portion of the player’s bankroll they should wager on each bet.
b = the odds the player is receiving on each wager (b to 1).
p = the probability of winning the wager.
q = the probability of losing the wager.
Winning Blackjack Betting Systems
For instance, imagine a game where the player receives even money odds (1-1), but feels as though they have a 55% chance of winning each hand. This would make the formula look like this:
f = (1*.55 – .45)/1
f = .1
In this case, the Kelly Criterion suggests betting .1, or 10% of the player’s bankroll, on each bet in order to maximize the growth-rate of the player’s bankroll. Of course, players rarely have such a huge edge, and blackjack is a bit more complex since the player sometimes wins differing amounts, and sometimes is forced to wager additional money on a hand. We’ll go into more detail on how to use the Kelly Criterion when playing blackjack in our article on Bankroll Management.