Nba Finals Matchups Odds

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More and more NBA bettors are banking on computers to do the work for them, and allowing machines to generate impartial, stats-driven NBA predictions on NBA matchups over the course of the regular season, including NBA playoffs and the NBA Finals.

The NBA following up a nine-game slate on Tuesday with another nine-game slate on Wednesday. The action gets underway with a trio of contests at 7:30 p.m. ET and wraps up with a heavyweight battle between the Lakers and Jazz at 10 p.m. ET.

The last game of the evening is arguably the most interesting. This is a potential Western Conference Finals preview. The Lakers are the defending champs, while the Jazz own the best record and Net Rating this season. Can the Jazz make a statement Wednesday night against LeBron James?

Let’s dive in.

KEY MATCHUPS

The Jazz are definitely a legit squad. Anyone who thinks this team is a fraud or can’t compete with the Lakers has simply not been paying attention this season. They’ve outscored their opponents by an average of +9.77 points per 100 possessions this season, which is at least +2.25 points higher than every other team in the league. They also rank first by a wide margin in Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System, which factors in strength of schedule.

The Jazz are still significantly behind the Lakers in the futures market – they’re just +950 to win the NBA Championship, but this team’s respect is clearly growing.

Look no further than the line for tonight’s matchup vs. the Lakers. The Jazz are currently listed as whopping nine-point favorites, which is almost unheard of with LeBron in the lineup. The Lakers have only been underdogs of seven points or more once since the start of the 2019-20 season, and neither LeBron nor Anthony Davis suited up in that contest.

Speaking of Davis, his absence is the big reason the line is where it is at the moment. He hasn’t played in each of the past four games, and the Lakers have lost three of those contests. That includes an embarrassing three-point loss at home to the Wizards in their last outing.

Nba Finals Matchups Odds

Nba Finals Matchups Odds Wild Card

That has created a narrative the Lakers just aren’t very good with Davis out of the lineup. That seems a little premature to me.

While they’re obviously better with Davis in the lineup, this team should still be quite good with him off the floor. The Lakers have posted a Net Rating of +5.8 with James on the court without Davis, which is a very respectable mark. LeBron can’t play the entire game – well, he probably could, but he shouldn’t – but this time should be fine in the long run as long as LeBron suits up.

I’ll take LeBron as a nine-point underdog every single time just out of sheer principle.

LINE MOVEMENT

There have already been some significant line moves on today’s slate.

One of the most notable line moves involves the San Antonio Spurs. They’re playing their first game since February 14th following a COVID-19 outbreak, and they will be significantly shorthanded tonight vs. the Thunder. Five players are out due to health and safety protocols – including Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, and Rudy Gay – while DeMar DeRozan is out for personal reasons.

The one positive is that the Spurs will be getting LaMarcus Aldridge back for this contest. He’s missed the past six games with an injury, and his return will give the Spurs some additional depth. That’s caused this line to move from Spurs +2 to Spurs +1 on FanDuel Sportsbook. There’s definitely an argument to be made about Aldridge’s impact on the team when they’re at full strength, but they’re going to need him tonight with multiple key contributors out of the lineup.

BETTING BREAKDOWNS

Nba finals matchups odds predictions

Celtics vs. Hawks

BEST BETS FROM THE SPORTSGRID BETTING MODEL

Find out who our betting model likes in each of tonight’s nine NBA contests.

Matchup

PLAYER PROP BETS

Nba Finals Matchups Odds Matchups

Joe Cervenka highlights a few player props providing value on Wednesday’s slate of games at FanDuel Sportsbook.